Timberwolves vs. Mavericks stat breakdown and series preview

Interior Defense

This matchup features two elite interior defenses. Minnesota surrendered the lowest paint field goal percentage (FG%) this season, largely due to Rudy Gobert’s brilliance. He held players to a mere 60.7 FG% in the restricted area, which was third best of the 131 players with at least 1000 restricted area shots defended. Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid also provide size, while Minnesota’s exceptional perimeter defenders frequently close off driving lanes in the first place. 

Meanwhile, Dallas held opponents to the second lowest paint FG% after the trade deadline, behind only the Wolves. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II are quality shot-blockers and both own a massive contest radius. Additionally, P.J .Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. provide physical wing defense that can stonewall bigger slashers. 

With the paint locked down on both ends, this'll likely turns into a jump-shot battle. Both teams have outside shooters and tough shot-makers, so both offenses have the tools necessary to gain the upper hand.

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Pick & Roll Defense 

In addition to a superb interior defense, Minnesota possesses hyper-disruptive perimeter defenders. It allowed a mere 0.83 points per possession to pick-and-roll ball handlers during the regular season — second best across the NBA. Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will make life extremely difficult for Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, especially with Minnesota’s bigs lurking in the background. 

Dallas needs a big screening series from both Gafford and Lively to create space for its stars. Plus, Doncic and Irving must knock down their pull-up 3s as a counter to Gobert’s drop coverage. Otherwise, it could be an ugly, messy series for the stars in terms of efficiency and turnovers.

Fouls & Defensive Discipline 

Minnesota finished the regular season ranked 20th in opponent free-throw attempt rate. Towns and Gobert averaged the second- and 10th-most personal fouls per game across the league. As a team, the Wolves are fouling at a slightly higher rate this postseason, which doesn’t bode well for them against Dallas. 

Doncic is exceptional at forcing defenders out of position and subsequently drawing fouls. Plus, the superstar also understands how to exaggerate slight contact and trick officials. 

Overall, the Wolves must stay disciplined in this series. Towns, in particular, is prone to mental lapses that lead to careless fouls. Minnesota badly needs his offensive firepower, so his ability to avoid foul trouble will be worth monitoring.