Dallas Drops to Third in Central

It was a tough week for the Stars, who lost home starts against Florida and New Jersey to drop to third place in the Central Division, percentage points behind both Winnipeg and Colorado. All three clubs have 89 points on the campaign, but the Stars have played two more games than the Jets and one more than Colorado.

Dallas blew a three-goal cushion Tuesday evening, allowing four straight tallies, including three in the third period within a span of 3:29, suffering a 4 – 3 loss to Florida. Aleksander Barkov netted two of the goals, sandwiched around the game-tying marker by Sam Bennett. Barkov also assisted on the Panthers opening goal by Sam Reinhart, giving Florida’s top center three points on the evening.

Momentum shifted at the 10:53 mark of the third when Jason Robertson was assessed a holding penalty, with Dallas up 3 – 1. Barkov cashed in a mere :16 later, to close the gap to one.

Less than three minutes later, Bennett knotted the contest at three with a tip-in goal assisted by Matthew Tkachuk and Gustav Forsling.

Barkov gave Florida its first and only lead at 14:38, just 10 seconds into its fourth power play. The Panthers, who have the second-best man-advantage attack in the league, finished with three power-play goals.

Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston led the way led the way for the Stars, each finishing with a goal and an assist. Joe Pavelski also scored for Dallas.

At the point Robertson took the holding call in the third frame, Dallas had a 95.14% chance of winning the contest, according to the advanced stats website Money Puck. Less than four minutes later, their odds shrunk to just 11.35% following Barkov’s go-ahead goal.

Thursday night against the Devils, Dallas probably deserved a better fate than the one they got, a humiliating 6 – 2 loss at home. According to Money Puck, Dallas had an expected goals for mark of 4, versus just 2.29 for New Jersey, and outshot the Devils 37 – 22 for the game. Still, they simply gave up too many high-quality chances for a team that is trying to play tighter defensively as the season winds down and the postseason quickly nears.

Dallas was also outplayed between the pipes, where Devils starter Jake Allen was excellent, stopping 35 of 37 shots and finishing with a goals saved above expected of 2.0. Meanwhile, Jake Oettinger, who started for Dallas, allowed 3.17 more goals than expected, based on the number and quality of chances against. He was pulled from the net just 3:52 into period two after giving up New Jersey’s fourth goal on their 10^th shot. Scott Wedgewood replaced Oettinger but the change didn’t have the effect head coach Peter DeBoer was looking for, with the understudy giving up a Tomas Nosek tally just 1:20 later on the second shot against.

Wyatt Johnston scored his 25^th goal of the campaign, good for second on the Stars and just one behind team leader Roope Hintz. Johnston, the Stars first round pick in 2021, scored 24 goals as a rookie but has already exceeded that mark in his sophomore campaign with 14 games to go.

The losses, coupled with Colorado’s five-game winning streak have put Dallas in an unenviable position heading into the playoffs. If the postseason began today, Dallas would be poised to play the Avalanche in round one, a fate that would guarantee one of the better teams in the NHL this season would be eliminated before the Stanley Cup quarterfinals begin.

Winnipeg, currently leading the Division and second overall in the Western Conference, would have a date with the top wildcard team out west. At present, that would be the Nashville Predators. No disrespect toward the Predators intended, but the Stars would strongly prefer a first-round matchup with Nashville over an assignment against Colorado. But Dallas is going to have to have get back into the win column if they want a shot to pass both the Jets and Avalanche to take the Division crown.

They’ll have another chance to do just that tonight at home against the LA Kings. LA is coming off a 5 – 0 win in Chicago Friday night against the Blackhawks. The Stars have a good opportunity to catch a team playing the back half of two in two nights on the road and against a squad also playing their third in four nights, all away from LA. It’s vital the Stars get off to a good start tonight and be prepared to play a tough, grinding style to wear down the Kings, which should pay off against a club who should be experiencing some fatigue later in the contest.