It’s the final countdown. We’re within two weeks of the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story every day leading up to deadline day.
Today, we’re going to key in on the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are shooting for a fourth straight Stanley Cup Final appearance. They’re on a collision course with the Toronto Maple Leafs again in the first round. What do the Lightning have up their sleeve after Toronto’s trade for Ryan O’Reilly?
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Current Record: 35-17-3, 73 points (3rd in Atlantic)
General Manager: Julien BriseBois (5th season)
Head Coach: Jon Cooper (10th full season)
Captain: Steven Stamkos (10th season)
Last Year: Lost to Colorado Avalanche (4-2) in Stanley Cup Final.
Current Lineup: Click Here
Goals For: 3.51 per game (5th)
Goals Against: 2.91 per game (13th)
Power Play: 25.4 percent (5th)
Penalty Kill: 81 percent (11th)
Key Additions
F Vladislav Namestnikov – Signed 1-year, $2.5 million contract on July 13
LD Ian Cole – Signed 1-year, $3 million contract on July 13
LD Haydn Fleury – Signed 2-year, $1.525 million contract on July 13
RD Nick Perbix – Signed 1-year, entry-level contract on March 22 after four years at St. Cloud State (2017 6th Round Pick by Lightning)
RD Philippe Myers – Acquired from Nashville on July 3, since re-signed to 1-year, $1.4 million extension
Key Subtractions
LD Ryan McDonagh – Traded to Nashville on July 3
LW Ondrej Palat – Signed 5-year, $30 million contract with New Jersey on July 14
RD Jan Rutta – Signed 3-year, $8.25 million contract with Pittsburgh on July 13
Trainer’s Table
C Anthony Cirelli – Missed 23 games after offseason shoulder surgery
RD Zach Bogosian – Missed 24 games after offseason shoulder surgery
Both of Tampa’s serious injuries this season were taken care of during the offseason. Otherwise, the Lightning have iced a complete lineup for the bulk of the season. The Bolts initially stalled without Cirelli anchoring the second line, but they are back to heating up at the right time.
It’s always helpful to take a look back at last year’s trade deadline to see if any information can be gleaned about how Tampa Bay might manage this year.
March 20, 2022
To Tampa Bay: Nick Paul
To Ottawa: Mathieu Joseph, 2024 4th-Round Pick, 44.5% retained on Paul
(Paul was re-signed on July 1 to 7-year, $22.05 million deal)
March 18, 2022
To Tampa Bay: Brandon Hagel, 2022 4th-Round Pick (Kenny Connors), 2024 4th-Round PIck
To Chicago: Taylor Raddysh, Boris Katchouk, 2023 1st-Round Pick, 2024 1st-Round Pick
March 21, 2022
To Tampa Bay: Riley Nash
To Arizona: Future Considerations
Make no mistake: When BriseBois identifies a need for his team, he curates a list of strong fits, selects a target and pays the price. There is no monkey business. He gets it done. For the third year in a row, the Lightning added savvy, critical depth pieces to help propel them to the Cup Final. This year, their asset pool is incredibly thin, but BriseBois is one of the most creative and proactive general managers in the league and will more than likely make something happen for his team again.
Yet again, Tampa is one of the most consistent teams in the league this year, with no clear and obvious weakness or fatal flaw to address. Do the Lightning miss the depth that Palat and McDonagh provided? Of course, but their chances to win weren’t dramatically altered without those players – and now they can potentially add to give their top players a bit of a breather down the stretch.
The Lightning rank inside the top third in the league in most critical statistical categories. Their offense is fifth-best. They also get contributions from across their lineup. Hagel and Paul have been as advertised, with Hagel already on the cusp of hitting 20 goals again and Paul chipping in with 16 of his own. Back from injury, Cirelli continues to anchor the second line, and Alex Killorn will break 20 goals for the third time in his career.
Defensively, Tampa makes it hard on opponents to enter the zone with any regularity and limits quality chances against when they do get there. The Bolts are top 10 in almost every defensive metric: expected goals against, scoring chances against and high-danger scoring chances against. The one area that might give BriseBois and Jon Cooper some pause is their penalty kill, which is still in the top half of the league.
Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy remains the game’s great equalizer. If there are defensive breakdowns or penalty-killing miscues, Vasilevskiy can mop it up with ease. He makes up for a lot of mistakes – but as noted, the Bolts don’t make many.
While there may be ups and downs of the regular season, this Tampa team is another iteration of the championship-caliber squad it's rolled out for the past four seasons. The Bolts sit third in their division, but they feel like a shark swimming in the Atlantic, waiting for the appropriate time to bite off another deep cut in the playoffs. As Steven Stamkos said so eloquently: “We don’t care about the picks,” which means BriseBois is ready to maximize this core’s championship window by any means necessary.
If Tampa’s penalty kill is really a concern, or if Cooper would like to reduce Victor Hedman’s workload leading up to the playoffs, perhaps the best course of action is to acquire a defenseman who can add to the depth, aid the penalty kill and provide a physical presence. We’ve seen that Tampa is active in that market with both Ian Cole and Philippe Myers added to the mix, though the Myers bet (and extension) doesn’t look like it will pay off.
One element certainly missing in Tampa’s bottom-six forward group is a burst of speed. None of Pat Maroon, Corey Perry or Pierre-Edouard Bellemare would be considered a burner. The Bolts could use some turbo there, preferably one with term if they’re going to give up some of their precious few assets.
(With Borgen, Jeannot and Gregor, the Bolts could trade for the pending RFAs, re-sign them, or flip them in the summer and likely get almost the same as they paid in the return — or at least close to it.)
The Lightning would like to shop at Gucci, but they’ve got a wallet befitting of Walmart. Tampa’s prospect pool is understandably thin. The Lightning have already traded their first-round picks in 2023 and 2024. They also do not have a second-round pick this season. Also of note: BriseBois has not moved many significant roster players to improve the Bolts at the deadline, and we anticipate that will continue. Here’s what is likely in play:
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